Gambling News

I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.

There are innumerable so-called gambling experts willing to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.

The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the very reason there are so many bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.

The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.

However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.

So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.

One way is to get very good at mathematical modelling and set up a model that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more information than you.

However, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through hard work reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).

And what do you do when you have an edge in information terms? You follow the value.

Value betting is where you back a selection at odds that are greater than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.

Of course Grimsby (as is often the case) might fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will lose. Simple.

Online gambling is like any other business that has positive impact on the economy. It positively contributes a lot to the different facets of the economic growth. The positive contribution of the gambling industry supersedes its negative side by far. The industry contributes to the economic growth by creation of income. The revenue generated trickles to the operators of the online gambling websites, the website developers and administrators, people employed by the money processing companies and people used to promote the sites.

The online gamblers readily earn extra cash that supplement most of their daily needs. This has made some people to switch to online casino as fulltime occupation. Due to the declining employment opportunities many people are finding themselves unemployed; online gambling has provided an alternative means of generating income.

In some cases, the online casino rewards are very huge that the players are completely transformed financially; they move from ‘rags to riches’ in a split of a second. The earnings still contribute to the economic growth for are invested by the winners in different ways such as stocks, real estate or opening up of new businesses. The opened businesses generate income to the owners, employ people, pay tax and the profits gained are ploughed back into the economy by re-investing.

The immense competition in the online gambling has called for new or fresh ideas and technology, hence it catalyzes; research, development and growth of technology. Recently, the gambling outfits have indulged in the research and growth of cyber security; this is later integrated into other internet businesses.

There is huge funding by online gambling businesses to community projects as part of their corporate responsibility. The funds are used in improving education, rehabilitation, health and the infrastructure among others. In the infrastructure, they are mostly concerned with the development of communication systems so that more people can access the internet and enroll for online betting.

Online gambling has come with many cost-cutting measures that have enabled many people to afford playing. Due to it being online people need not to travel to any location like in brick and mortar gambling. Time is also saved for you can play at anytime and at any place. Other cost cutting measures or benefits are in the reduced capital requirement; no rent is paid, fewer overheads are met and it reaches people globally with no extra costs.

The above benefits have made more people to participate in the business increasing the competition. The online casino competition has lowered the playing costs while it has increased the rewards offered for meager playing amounts paid. It has also assisted in decongesting urban areas, reducing rent rates and traffic jams.

The online gambling industry has greatly contributed to the boosting of the level of tax collection. Just like any other legitimate business, the betting outlets file their tax returns to the relevant revenue bodies. The tax collected is huge and is used to increase the countries budgets. The money is used by the governments for paying civil servants, sponsor research, education, health and many other important activities aimed at improving the lives of the citizens.

Online gambling has many social benefits due to its efficiency and convenience. The first benefit derived from the online betting is the provision of ample family time. In our current lifestyles; we are marred by over stretched schedules leading to having none, or very little time for our families. Online gambling has solved this; rather than spending time in the physically casinos the player can now stay and play at home. When playing in your house you are near your children and wife. In this way they will not feel neglected; you are next to them if they need you.

Online casinos are cheap and convenient in time and finance. The registration and playing charges are minimal; this eliminates family conflicts stemming from overspending on the family budget. For inflation has affected every part of our lives things are costing a lot including the recreation activities. The online gambling will save you on fuel and impulse playing due to incitement by others who are winning while you are losing. Harmony in the family gives the children healthy and excellent atmosphere to grow.

The online gambling business has reduced crimes in the society hence enhancing security. People are earning from the casino winnings thus need not indulge in crime. The new businesses started using the gambling rewards increase the earning opportunities to the owners and creates more employment. People with steady income have no time to engage in criminal acts. The payments options availed are secure in that people need not carry hard cash with them; this has reduced the crime rate.

These online gambling activities have also engaged the people’s time; ‘idle mind are dangerous minds’. When people are busy they will least think of taking part in crime like drug trafficking and drug use, robberies and other crimes.

The rewards offered, the taxes, and the investments done using the online gambling winnings have affected the living standards of the citizens positively. The money has been used to fund community projects as building schools, offering sponsorships and scholarships, building hospitals, rehabilitating the sick, creating more housing facilities, building roads and other infrastructure, improving sports and paying salaries to different people. In the process of accomplishing these projects many people are employed and businesses boom due to consumption of materials needed

Once the living standards of a community are raised you will see good co-existence between the people thus stimulating more development cooperation. The online gambling prizes and the donations from the casinos have frequently been used to care for the environment; trees are planted, water sources, fauna and flora being conserved, garbage removed and other environmental activities.

Lastly, the online gambling ventures have reduced congestion in urban area. Congestion of people contribute to less efficiency, disease transmission and also crime; rather than people running to casinos after work to play they head straight home where they play the online casino games on their computers. This eases the strain on the local governments in provision of the crucial amenities as water, lightning and security in the town centers.